the World Bank says.
The number of Nigerians living in poverty is increasing significantly,
revealing a perplexing contrast between the nation's economic
statistics on rapid economic growth and minimal welfare improvements
for much of the population, the World Bank has said.
"Poverty rates remain high in Nigeria, particularly in rural areas.
These rates declined between 2003-2004 and 2009- 2010, although not
nearly as fast as would be expected from the pace of economic growth
in the country," the World Bank said in its 'Nigeria Economic Report'
May, 2013.
"While the officially reported growth rates of GDP well exceed
population growth in the country, the pace of poverty reduction does
not, this implies that the number of poor Nigerians living below the
poverty line has grown measurably," the report stated.
The World Bank said the first Nigeria Economic Report is designed to
give some attention to longer term trends in the country, including
the puzzle of why a decade of rapid GDP growth by official statistics,
concentrated in the pro-poor areas of agriculture and trade, did not
bring stronger welfare and employment benefits to the population.
Aside from the increase in poverty, the organisation said progress
towards a number of the other Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria
has also been disappointing, stating that Nigeria was ranked 153 out
of 186 countries in the 2013 United Nations Human Development Index,
as unemployment rates have been steadily increasing and younger
Nigerians are encountering increasing difficulty in finding gainful
employment.
The organisation said available data on unemployment suggest a similar story.
"Job creation in Nigeria has been inadequate to keep pace with the
expanding working age population. The official unemployment rate has
steadily increased from 12% of the working age population in 2006 to
24% in 2011. Preliminary indications are that this upward trend
continued in 2012.
Another issue the report highlighted was that the official definition
of employment in Nigeria (less than 40 hours worked in the past week)
is unusual, and is therefore not comparable to that in most other
countries. The negative dynamic is very consistent, however, with
perceptions of the population of increasing difficulties for finding
gainful employment. Going by this, the problem in Nigeria might best
be interpreted as underemployment in contrast to unemployment proper.
Variance in reported statistics and reality
Reports over the recent years have continued to highlight the concern
that the Nigerian economic statistics reveals a puzzling contrast
between rapid economic growth and quite minimal welfare improvements
for much of the population.
Nigeria's annual growth rates that average over 7 per cent in official
data during the last decade place the nation among the fastest growing
economies in the world. This growth has been concentrated particularly
in trade and agriculture, which would suggest substantial welfare
benefits for many Nigerians.
"Nevertheless, improvements in social welfare indicators have been
much slower than would be expected in the context of this growth.
Poverty reduction and job creation have not kept pace with population
growth, implying social distress for an increasing number of
Nigerians. Progress toward the fulfillment of many of the Millennium
Development Goals has been slow, and the country ranked 153 out of 186
countries in the 2013 United Nations Human Development Index" the
World Bank said.
The Organisation said further data collection and investigations will
be necessary to clarify this picture of what factors are responsible
or explain the disparities between economic growth and the welfare
indicators of the nation.
"Given the seeming inconsistencies between the national accounts data
summarized above and statistics based on other surveys, it is
imperative to conduct further investigations and statistical tests to
uncover the true growth and development story in Nigeria" the World
Bank said.
Against this backdrop, the World Bank said it is imperative that
Nigeria finds a recipe to unlock rapid growth and job creation in a
larger part of the country, as well as to increase standards of
education, health, and other social services to enable its citizens to
find gainful employment in the emerging growth poles.
"In sum, statistics on poverty and unemployment in Nigeria, together
with other direct indicators of welfare, suggest a story that is
rather different from the national accounts data. GDP growth has not
been sufficient to support levels of poverty reduction and job
creation necessary to prevent a growing number of poor and unemployed
(underemployed) Nigerians."
Despite the challenges, the World Bank states that the macroeconomic
outlook for Nigeria in 2013 appears fairly strong, assuming that oil
prices do not decline sharply and oil output stabilizes. The foreign
inflows that generated the balance of payments surplus and reserve
accumulation should continue, and will stimulate domestic demand. In
this context, particularly if there are better weather conditions in
2013, the pace of economic growth could accelerate somewhat.
"Overall, 2013 should provide a favourable context for the realization
of key reforms and investments (power, roads, business climate,
education, health, agriculture) that could generate the non-oil
growth, productivity increases, and jobs needed to ensure the
country's prosperous future".
The Jonathan administration has increasingly made reference to
Nigeria's GDP and economic growth as signs of successes while the
opposition and several Nigerians lament that those growth have not had
a corresponding effect on the lives of average Nigerians
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